TRONG HOLDS THE KEY

Assalamualaikum,

DUN Trong holds the key to success or demise of the parties involved. Trong is mostly rural and staunch in its adherence to partisan inclination. BN won this state constituency in the last general election, and it is an indication of the anchorage they have there. But the split between UMNO and PAS in this constituency is fairly even, which means that voters turnout would play a crucial part. It also means that the kind of strategy employed by the parties involved would sway voters to their favour.

But PAS has something already in its pocket. The hatred of the non-Malay voters to UMNO and UMNO-engineered coup de tat in Perak. Even though they number about 30%, if a good voter turn-out rules the day of the voting, the UMNO would certainly gulung tikar.

So long Trong is even between UMNO and PAS, then UMNO loses the P059 by-election

Table 1: P059 Bukit Gantang 200902 By-Election
Percentage of voters with blank NoRumah by DUN, excluding postal voters

parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	Count of voters without house number	Count of voters	Percent
059/13	Kuala Sapetang	5,192	19,722	26.3%
059/14	Changkat Jering	3,836	24,961	15.4%
059/15	Trong	5,452	10,743	50.7%
Total		14,480	55,426	26.1%
Postal voters			136
All voters			55,562

Table 2: P059 Bukit Gantang 200902 By-Election
Percentage of voters with blank NoRumah by DM, excluding postal voters
Arranged by PERCENTAGES

parl/DUN/DM	NamaDUN	P059 Bukit Gantang NamaDM	Count of voters without house number	Count of voters	Percent
059/15/13	Trong	Batu Hampar	589	656	89.8%
059/14/11	Changkat Jering	Kampong Cheh	931	1,356	68.7%
059/15/06	Trong	Bukit Gantang Selatan	608	903	67.3%
059/15/12	Trong	Padang Gajah	534	881	60.6%
059/15/04	Trong	Trong	316	563	56.1%
059/15/10	Trong	Permatang Raja	553	999	55.4%
059/15/11	Trong	Sungai Tinggi	1,012	1,843	54.9%
059/15/03	Trong	Kampong Tebok Trong	299	545	54.9%
059/13/12	Kuala Sapetang	Bendang Siam	691	1,273	54.3%
059/13/02	Kuala Sapetang	Ayer Puteh	395	730	54.1%
059/13/10	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Jaha	166	308	53.9%
059/13/07	Kuala Sapetang	Matang Gelugor	192	387	49.6%
059/13/13	Kuala Sapetang	Changkat Ibol	1,026	2,175	47.2%
059/15/14	Trong	Sungai Rotan	142	303	46.9%
059/15/08	Trong	Temelok	600	1,311	45.8%
059/13/04	Kuala Sapetang	Jebong	816	1,801	45.3%
059/15/09	Trong	Sungai Che Rahmat	136	303	44.9%
059/15/01	Trong	Kuala Trong	307	722	42.5%
059/13/11	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Mati	317	761	41.7%
059/13/08	Kuala Sapetang	Sungai Limau	166	460	36.1%
059/15/07	Trong	Ayer Terjun	170	498	34.1%
059/14/10	Changkat Jering	Bukit Gantang	585	1,781	32.8%
059/14/09	Changkat Jering	Jelutong	312	958	32.6%
059/14/08	Changkat Jering	Changkat Jering	550	2,393	23.0%
059/14/07	Changkat Jering	Ayer Kuning	533	2,605	20.5%
059/15/02	Trong	Pasir Hitam Trong	61	316	19.3%
059/13/03	Kuala Sapetang	Simpang Halt	492	2,586	19.0%
059/13/01	Kuala Sapetang	Kamunting Station	440	2,945	14.9%
059/15/05	Trong	Trong Barat	125	900	13.9%
059/13/06	Kuala Sapetang	Kampong Menteri	197	1,448	13.6%
059/13/09	Kuala Sapetang	Jalan Mangala	189	1,497	12.6%
059/14/02	Changkat Jering	Simpang Lama	177	2,146	8.2%
059/14/01	Changkat Jering	Pengkalan Aor	272	3,305	8.2%
059/14/05	Changkat Jering	Kawasan J.K.R	265	3,236	8.2%
059/14/06	Changkat Jering	Larut Tin	102	2,935	3.5%
059/14/04	Changkat Jering	Jalan Simpang	98	2,980	3.3%
059/13/05	Kuala Sapetang	Kuala Sapetang	105	3,351	3.1%
059/14/03	Changkat Jering	Simpang Baru	11	1,266	0.9%
Total	Excluding postal		14,480	55,426	26.1%